对于Google,大家总有话说。有Google的铁杆粉丝,也有面对最近Google的扩张而有些迷茫的粉丝,更多的人是今年才听说有Google这个名字,关注起来,并义无反顾的成为新的粉丝。。。
大家喜欢把Google和微软进行比较,比来比去,得出结论Google是家比微软好的公司。我看这个结论下得有些早。
似曾相识的辉煌
Google的上市,似乎回应了Netscape在1995年掀起的互联网热潮。Google推出的产品,出一个,大家爱一个,好似到了一个盛世。
想想微软的过去,更加辉煌。那古老的日子里,计算机业界的老大IBM压得大家喘不过气来的时候, “微小”和“创新”的微软给了一代程序员希望。曾记得1995年Windows 95发布的1995年8月24日,整个多伦多CN电视塔被Windows 95的旗帜包裹起来,帝国大厦也被通体刷出了Windows的三种颜色。这这code名为Chicago的操作系统,是多少人追捧的目标。
当OLE技术出来的时候,它让用户可以把对象从一个应用程序拷贝到可以拷贝另外一个应用程序;COM让一个应用程序可以控制另外一个,就不说 Windows 3.1的彩色启动画面以及Windows 95的Start按钮给人带来的冲击了。这一切出来的时候,在当时所受的追捧程度,一点不亚于现在的Google发布的任何一项产品。只不过这些名词,有些生疏了,记不起来了。
创新和达尔文主义
Google是创新的,无论是搜索引擎还是最近接连推出的新产品,让大家眼睛一亮,再亮,直到眼花缭乱。著名的20%的时间自由支配就是支持这种创新的机制。
微软也是创新的。关于创新,它一直在微软的血液里面。微软内部的达尔文主义(物竞天择,适者生存),从Windows 95时代到现在,从来都没有改变过。迈克尔-德拉蒙德所写的《微软帝国叛逆》就讲述了OpenGL组里三个工程是坚持认为世界上有比OpenGL更适合Windows系统的图形引擎,于是掀起了微软内部的战争,秘密开发DirectX引擎。战争最终以更多的内部的部门采用更快更简单得DirectX而不是OpenGL,并使OpenGL组最终转变成为DirectX组而告终。这内部的种种创新的故事,已经有很多本书的记述了。
微软的产品在内部的残酷的竞争,多少团队的产品不及准备发布,就已经被内部淘汰。太多大家没有听到过的产品,就经过内部达尔文主义竞争下岗了。同一种技术,多个部门同时研发,谁找到了更多的内部或者外部的产品基于你的技术开发,谁就能活下来。而选择什么样的技术的慎重程度,也绝不亚于对外部公司的要求,因为如果自己选择的技术没有前途,也就意味着自己的产品前途暗淡。上千人的NetDoc队伍,就是要击败微软自己的Office,结果历经三年,Office如期发布了Office XP,而NetDoc还没来得及发布就被解散。建立在这个基础上的其他的各项应用,也随之解散或合并。这些殉葬者就是在内部评估的时候,把堵压在了一项技术上。微软内部,所有的团队都要在内部兜售自己的产品,没有合作者,没有使用者,就没有未来。
时代的变迁
一个时代,孕育出一个公司。一个新的时代产生了,它孕育的公司就会有更大的号召力。苹果的乔布斯一句“你希望一辈子卖糖水,还是希望有机会改变整个世界?”让斯卡利毫不犹豫从百事可乐的CEO的位置跨入了个人电脑行业。一个行业取代传统行业的主流地位,说快不快,变化总是那么不知不觉,没个上市或者产品发布这样的大时间做标志,就让人摸不清脉络;说慢也不慢,微软的辉煌看似电脑业最不可能改变的神话,却也在短短的十年间改变了,只不过真正的危险,不是曾经预测的美国司法部。
而微软的成功更在于Internet大潮到来的时候,延续了上一个时代的辉煌,并没有随之死掉。Netscape上市的1995年,微软先是毫无动作。在明显落后的时候,比尔-盖茨在12月7号写的那封长信:The Tide of Internet(互联网的大潮),让微软这艘航空母舰像鱼雷一样的180度大转弯,向新的互联网方向扑去。这个日子倒是选得意味深长。这一天,是日本偷袭珍珠港的纪念日。这天之后Internet Explorer的团队迅速扩大,并一周7天,每天十几个小时的苦干了两年,到98年的时候,已经没有太多Netscape的市场了。回顾历史,微软作为一个公司,做得已经很不容易了。
Google的威胁
最近越来越多地人觉得开始提Google的威胁了。其实Google没有做错什么一样,就像微软也没有做错什么一样,只是它越来越强大,进入了越来越多的领域,让越来越多地人开始觉得害怕了。今天感到害怕的可能还不是你,但明天呢?而更可怕的是,Google的成绩单太好,做得太优秀,让所有的人都固执的认为,如果Google做什么,肯定能成功。就像微软只有操作系统的时候,除了IBM担心以外,大家都开心。慢慢的,微软做办公软件了,做数据库了,做邮件系统了,做家庭娱乐了,每一样都给业界带来震撼,朋友一个一个地变成了敌人,敌人一个个受市场所迫成了朋友。去年微软开始传出要做杀病毒软件了,对于微软巨人这么小的一个举措,让所有的现有杀毒软件厂商都觉得自己头皮发麻,不为别的,就是因为它以前做得太成功了,给人了压力。
不说产品,单就从招人来说,IT公司的经理们有多少有自信自己的员工可以抵得住Google的诱惑?如果自己的开发人员足够优秀,并有幸被Google看中的话,自己担不担心呢?这种优秀人才从四面八方往Google聚集的场面,让人恍然觉得在仅仅10年前曾经上演过,不过那时候让业界担心的是微软罢了。Google不进中国,光环自然在那里,一旦进入这个游戏场,就不是原来那个可爱的Google了。用户选择Google倒是轻松,业界里的厂商们,是做敌人还是朋友,这是个问题。因为一个不断壮大的公司,总有一天回到了你的一亩三分地里来。Google作为公司没有做错什么,错就错在它是家过于成功的公司。当一些人紧张没有关系,如果整个IT届都为了一家公司紧张了,这家公司就是人民公敌。这,就是被称为“邪恶”的微软的历史告诉我们的。Google能够逃脱这个宿命吗?
自然的轮回
一个公司,就像一个人,也像自然中的任何东西,是有生命周期的。当他生机蓬勃的时候,就像幼儿学步一样可爱,虽然谁都知道人必有老去的时候,但没有到那一天真正到来,总觉得还很遥远。今天的花,明年就不在;现在看到的木头,过了100年未必还是完整木头。现在的公司,总是有成年的那一天,也有衰老的一天。只不过这周期,越来越快了。老字号们动辄百年老店,千年老店,只因为“张小泉”剪刀从明朝开始到现在还是那个剪刀,全聚德百年来的鸭子还是那个鸭子,多少的生意的盛衰都慢慢的轮回,都以我们不察觉的速度完成。百年老店经过百年,虽没死掉,在生活中的位置确不能同日而语。而IT这个行业,一两年就可以出一个新产品;到了互联网,更是一两个月就会有大变化。产品研发的加速让公司的兴衰随之加速,才让我们这些寿命不过百年的人们有幸快速的经历一个一个公司从幼年到青年到老年的轮回。
IBM代表着大型计算机和硬件业界的一个成就,没想到,被一个只做软件的微软超越;微软代表着平台和软件系统的一个成就,这个成就,正当大家翘首以待,是不是有更强的软件企业超越的时候(Linux就是一个这样因为思想的惯性而被看好的),没想到从互联网行业会杀出一匹名叫Google的黑马。Google被谁超越,现在还不好说。思想的惯性总是这样让我们感到措手不及。
Google是家好公司,就像微软一直是家好公司,更像如繁星一样的计算机历史上的还存在或者已经不复存在的著名的公司一样,都是好公司。不过,宿命还是宿命。看多了人间的生死,就知道人会死。人的死,从来没有坏死或者笨死的,而是宿命如此;好公司的死,虽有种种的不同的病因,但更是自然的轮回使然。
注一:声明自己在微软工作过,难免有屁股决定脑袋的嫌疑,作出不公正的结论。特此坦白。
注二:本文仅仅是希望我们再看公司的差异的时候,考虑进时间的维度,看一看一家公司的过去,再看看另外一家的公司的未来,才能体谅到每家公司的不易。
注三:手头放着两本书:一本是刘力明先生在1995年写的《电脑业世纪商战:IBM、苹果、微软创业争霸纪实》,看到几家公司的创业,感触很多。另外一本名叫《硅谷商战》是九九年买的,读了很多遍,硅谷的故事熟烂于胸。不过最近才注意到,作者名叫李彦宏,而这本书的序言落款是:“组稿编辑 张朝阳 于清华园 1998年12月”。那个时候,李彦宏还没有回国创办百度,张朝阳的搜狐也刚刚开张。这才几年,两个上市公司就这样走过来了。
During the same evening, another televised singing competition "Dream China" on CCTV entered its semi-final. Three contestants qualified for the final.
Other hot news today:
- A new study using satellite technology has set the height of Mount Qomolangma (Everest) at 8844.43 metres, 3.7 metres lower than previously reckoned, according to the State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping;
- The death toll in South Asia earthquake reaches 20,000.
The workers of Danwei were overpowered by Communist sloth during the October National Day holiday. But we're back and regular posting will resume today.
Thank you to all readers emailing about free wireless hotspots all over China. We will be compiling all the listings over the next week and publishing them.
In the meantime, some links:
- The China Heritage Newsletter is an online quarterly edited by Bruce Gordon Doar and Geremie R. Barmé. From their blurb:
It is an up-to-date digest of recent developments in all major areas related to Chinese heritage, and is based on a continuous assessment and collation of the latest archaeological finds, conferences, exhibitions, publications and media debates, both in Chinese and other relevant languages.
The current issue focuses on Xinjiang.
- If you are looking for free wireless Internet in Xiamen, visit What's On Xiamen.
- The new Insider's Guide to Beijing is out: go to their Insider's Guide web site for information about ordering the book or see their list of other recommended books about China (disclosure: your correspondent is a contributing writer to the guidebook).
- Finally, during the October holiday, U.S. megablogger Instapundit linked, without comment, to Danwei's defence of Yahoo's activities in China, resulting in many critical emails and a slew of hate mail. The funniest response is reproduced below:
MEME ALERT! “EVIL BABY BATH” VIRUS DETECTED IN YOUR POST
by Hu Yue
Dear Danwei,
While to most readers, it might appear that your argument against boycotting Yahoo! was simply specious, the Norton Team has some great news for you:
It’s not your fault.
Symantec’s Norton Anti-Meme 2005 Software has detected the presence of the virus/meme ”EVIL BABY BATH” in your post “Boycotting Yahoo! Will Not Help Freedom Of Expression In China.”
MEME/VIRUS DEFINITION:
“EVIL BABY BATH,”aka "Don't Throw the Good Bath Water of Media Growth Out With the Babies of Evil Corporate Complicity," aka “The Growth of Media Will Solve Everything,” aka “Information – Even Without Wisdom, Fairness or Justice – Will Set Us All Free.”
DESCRIPTION OF VIRUS:
If your writing gets infected with this meme, the following symptoms usual present themselves.
Symptom 1. ASSUMING ALL BATHWATER IS GOOD BATHWATER. AND THAT BATHWATER IS FINITE AND UNREPLACEABLE
You tend to equate the universal imperative of free-thinking human beings to be critical of and take action against specific instances of evil (i.e., throwing out evil babies) with the media’s unprovable belief that more access to media (i.e., media growth bathwater) is always a greater good, no matter what conditions in which that growth occurs. This is a purported but critically ambiguous greater good, for instance, which should justify forgiving the actions of Jerry Yang’s IP-Address Collection and Storage Agency.
Therefore, you would criticize the efforts of those who call for a boycott, and mistakenly equate such a specific action with a negation of the hallowed bathwater of unqualified media growth.
The reality, however, is this: no matter how many evil babies you toss out of the bathtub, there’s always going to be more bathwater left over, not to mention the faucet across the room.
So, chill out. Let the boycotters do humanity a great service by expressing their right to boycott corporations.
And as for the media growth bathwater: Here’s what we can predict about the Holy Grail of unhindered growth of media: Nothing.
The nature of media – who owns it, what it is, etc, -- and the nature of our access to it changes so quickly, it’s really kind of hard to say what it actually is, from day to day.
In Thomas Paine’s day, for instance, a printed pamphlet was a really cool medium. Back then, you read a pamphlet. These days, the pamphlet reads you. So, the idea that “However it Grows, Any Growth is Good,” is so unspecific as to be unmeaningful anymore. Especially if you live in an environment where Big Brother frequently employs seriously long jail terms to clamp down on innocuous emails.
The growth of free anonymous ad-based email services would be really good if, for instance, such services were actually anonymous. Yahoo! and probably all other “free” web-based tools (gmail, hotmail, etc.) are apparently only anonymous to people who don’t have Yahoo!’s Hong Kong office telephone number and a court order from, er, um, anyone.
[Note to legal department: Check and see if Yahoo! actually got compensated for providing such information. If they got paid in anyway for providing confidential information, that would be REALLY interesting.]
Is the Internet in China an unqualified good thing for millions and millions? I don’t know. I can imagine a different universe where it’s equally big, but not as nasty.
Is profit-driven, highly censored-monitored-and-recorded media expansion, much of which is owned by the state, a good thing in all cases? I’m not so sure.
Maybe Yahoo! shutting its doors in China over a single instance of principle-over-profit would be a really good thing for 1/4th of humanity. It’s possible.
Symptom 2. FALLACIOUS LOGIC UNDERLYING SPECIOUS ARGUMENTS
But let’s come back to Earth for a moment: Boycotting Yahoo! or any American company operating in China doesn’t even come close to suggesting they pack up and leave. A boycott is designed to send a message, because the organizers of the boycott see value in the receiver receiving the message. Chinese who boycott Japanese products are clearly not saying, “I want the company that makes my hard-earned Sony Lifestyle destroyed forever.” What they are saying is, “Please rewrite your f---ing textbooks.”
Boycotting Yahoo! would have almost no effect on its viability in China – it would however send a much-needed, timely and appropriate message. Even if every single American IT company packed up its bags and left forever, this country would not and could not return to a pre-Internet condition.
Your comparing a specific thing – a legimate tool of expression known as a boycott – to a hyperbolic impossibility (shutting down the Chinese Internet, a community that is unlikely to be shut down by anyone).
Symptom 3. INABILITY TO SEE THAT BOYCOTTS ARE A CRITICALLY IMPORTANT KIND OF MEDIUM -- AND MAY BE OUR LAST
You lose sight of the fact that in a world increasingly managed by private corporations – operating in conjunction with hundreds of different governments by rules that are only transparent to highly-paid international law firms and supercomputers – a boycott is one of the most interesting forms of free speech available to humanity.
Indeed, just a few seconds before artificially-intelligent life takes over the planet or we blow ourselves up, the freedom NOT to purchase something will probably be the very LAST form of free speech we ever have.
NORTON ANTI-MEME SIDEBAR: BOYCOTTS FOR DUMMIES
A human being can go to jail for lying, stealing or murdering.
A corporation, on the other hand, cannot. No jail big enough, even if it were possible. And it’s not possible.
A human being is tied down by all kinds of moral, social and even philosophical considerations.
A corporation is not. It has one Prime Imperative: increase profits to shareholders. In the cases of big corporations, it usually has millions of shareholders – all of whom simply want to recoup profits from the corporation.
Which is to say, most public companies are like big Ouija boards being operated by millions of blind, cheese-seeking rats.
Predictably, this weird and unfair situation leads to some pretty f----ed-up situations.
Therefore, truly idealistic people (whom we should revere more than do these days) occasionally come up with mechanisms like boycotts. Boycotts almost never result in the destruction of a company, by the way, (as your infected article suggests). The goal of a boycott is almost always to change a specific behavior of the unjailable corporation, and to cease the boycott once t
Boycotts are a form of communication. In fact, it they are the perfect and perhaps only form of communication that is actually intelligible to a multinational, unjailable monster who thinks like a Ouija board operated by millions of cheese-seeking rats.
Because boycotts threaten the only consequence an almost perfectly amoral monster will listen to: The diminishment of its profits, which would go directly against its Prime Directive.
Corporations, by the way, don’t care HOW they make money. Which is useful if you’re interested in influencing their behavior. Corporations also know no shame. (Imagine a million cheese-seeking rats looking shameful. Can’t do it, can you?)
Which is why boycotts are a legitimate tool of expression, and why they sometimes work. Because once the corporation becomes convinced that a particular action – if continued – will result in diminished profits, it will do something else.
Wby, because every one of those millions of cheese-seeking rats dutifully read Who Ate My Cheese?
This brings us back to Jerry Yang:
Theoretically, yes, a big fat well-organized boycott of Yahoo! could very result in greater freedom of expression in China.
Indeed, it would lead to – and probably already has – resulted – in ONE SPECIFIC INSTANCE of greater freedom of expression in China: The boycott itself – even if only mounted by foreign users of Yahoo! – would add to the tally ONE MORE FREELY-EXPRESSED MESSAGE, a big message read and discussed by many.
The messsage is this: Dare to speak.
Symptom4: INTERPRETING CHINA’S NETIZENS’ LACK OF EXPRESSED ANNOYANCE AS HAVING ANY STATISTICAL RELEVANCE
Random Quote: “Never have so many done so little with so much.”
Random Horror Movie Quote: “Why is it so quiet in here?”
Symptom 5: INFECTIOUS WEBSITE COLOR ISSUES
Finally, if you indeed have contracted virus/meme ”EVIL BABY BATH,”your website might turn a really hip shade of grey and maroon. Disturbingly, this symptom itself can become contagious and start infecting other websites, such as, The Shanghai Daily. (Which means, of course, that the folks at Shanghai Daily aren’t really a bunch of unoriginal plagiaristic copycats. They’re just diseased.)
REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Download the Following Virus Definitions and Their Associated Subtext Codes:
- knee-jerk cynicism
- apathy with a slight hue of entitlement and well-educated defeatism
- corporate stockholm syndrome
2. Search for Associate Subtext Codes in Your Post.
3. Replace with Following:
- idealism
- courage
- social justice
Prophylactically Yours,
The Symantec Anti-Virus Team