Source favicon23:18 It's a Mini world » Google Blog




Everyone else is having fun with Google Maps; why not your friendly neighborhood Google Mini team? Here's our ever-expanding map of satisfied customers who are giving our website and intranet search appliance rave reviews.



P.S. Don't forget to drag your way over to Europe.
Source favicon23:05 Heading to the mountains for a few days... » Jeremy Zawodny's blog
I'm going to be flying a 2 seat glider out of Truckee (north end of Lake Tahoe) today, tomorrow, and Friday. Then on Saturday I'll fly the annual Gerlach Dash for the first time (details). We'll launch from Air Sailing on Saturday afternoon and fly to the Black Rock Desert (home of Burning Man), land there, and spend the night at the only motel in town. Sunday, we try to fly home. Should be a fun weekend. :-)...
Source favicon20:27 Beijing Media Top Stories: traffic accident, Discovery and Typhoon Matsa ... » Danwei RSS 1.0
BMP050810S.jpg
The front page of Beijing Morning Post, featuring a photo of the crew of Discovery going out from the aircraft

1. New regulation on Beijing's traffic accidents: seven circumstances can not be settled in private

2. Discovery and its crew of seven glides safely back to Earth

3. Lacking enough experience makes the mistake on weather forecast about Typhoon Matsa

4. Mainland starts selecting giant pandas for Taiwan

5. 84 hospitals publish illegal medical ads




Source favicon16:46 Google News has RSS feeds, ScrappyGoo will continue » Tim Yang's Geek Blog

As news has spread very rapidly over the past day, Google News has added RSS feeds to their offering. And as has been observed, their RSS package has a good way of handling duplicate stories as related links. So here’s what I’ve been waiting for since I released the ScrappyGoo Google News RSS scraper.

Source favicon16:43 Media regulation in China: Closed open closed open for business » Danwei RSS 1.0
state_council.jpg
The State Council discusses how to ensure China's media stays mediocre

Last week new 'rules' restricting foreign investment in cultural products and media in China were widely reported in the Chinese and foreign press, with many commentators calling the new rules a clamp down.

On Friday, Danwei noted that these new 'rules', issued by a handful of different Chinese government bureaus, were not called laws, rules or regulations, but rather mere 'suggestions' (see link at bottom of this post).

Yesterday Xinhua published a report on the "State Council's several Decisions on guiding non-public capital into the cultural industry."

There is nothing new in the Decisions — they seem to be an attempt to codify what is already standard practice. They allow Chinese private companies (called 'funds' and 'investment' in the State Council document) much more leeway than foreign investors. However all methods of information transmission are restricted: the state must own 51% or more of any such operation. Information transmission includes: book and periodical publishing, running radio or TV stations, operating regular TV programming, and operating news websites.

So what's really going on?

It appears that the intention of these Decisions is to encourage private investment to rescue moribund state-owned media and cultural enterprises, but not to allow anyone to get control of any powerful information distribution systems. These Decisions will help ensure that China's media and cultural industries continue to grow, but also continue to remain mediocre.

Below is a rough translation of the "State Council's Decisions on private funds in cultural industries":

1. Encourage and support private funds entering the following areas:
Performing arts troupes, performance venues, museums and exhibition halls, Internet service venues, art education and training, art and cultural exchanges, travel cultural services, cultural entertainment, art object management, cartoons and Internet games, advertising, production and distribution of films and TV programs, broadcast technology development, movie theaters and movie theater cables (i.e. digital delivery of movies to cinemas), film screenings in rural areas, retail and distribution of books and periodicals, retail and distribution of audio and video products, printing of packaging and decorative printed items.

2. Encourage and support private funds engaged in the export of cultural products and services.

3. Encourage and support private funds participating in the reconstructing of state-owned work units that run performance troupes and venues; private funds can own controlling stakes in such companies.

4. It is permissible for private funds to enter the areas of publication printing, production of blank and recorded optic disks and other such cultural industries.

5. Private funds can participate in the following types of state-owned enterprise: publication printing and distribution, advertising and distribution for news publications, production of programs about music, technology, sports and entertainment for radio and TV stations, production, and distribution and screening of movies. The above mentioned cultural enterprises must be at least 51% state-owned.

6. Private funds can construct and operate cable TV networks, and participate in establishing or digitalizing cable TV networks, but the above mentioned cultural enterprises must be at least 51% state-owned. Private funds can own controlling stakes in parts of cable TV networks that serve communities [e.g. apartment complexes].

7. Private funds can set up advertising services outdoors, on buildings, transportation, in shops, and on screens, and in hotels that meet requirements, may provide audio-visual programming services. The relevant departments must strictly enforce scope and quality of such services and strengthen day to day supervision of them.

8. Private funds entering cultural industries must obey the relevant existing regulations, of which the 5th, 6th and 7th clauses which specify that approvals are necessary from the relevant departments. The examination and approval of relevant investments must be completed according to the regulations of the State Council's Decisions on Investment for Structural Reform (National Law (2004) No. 20). The approval process must be strictly examined and perfected to ensure the orderly development of cultural industries and protect the lawful rights and interests of businesses, and prohibit operations which are illegal or contrary to regulations. Privately funded cultural enterprises enjoy the same treatment as state-owned enterprises during the application, approval and funding processes.

9. Private funds are not allowed to invest in, establish or operate news agencies, newspapers, publishing companies, radio stations or channels, TV stations or channels, broadcast relay stations, broadcast satellites, satellite ground stations, transfer stations, microwave stations, monitoring stations, cable TV network backbones etc.; they are not allowed to use information networks to develop audio-visual programming services and news websites; they are not allowed to operate editorial sections of newspapers, TV broadcast frequencies and programs, operate books and newspaper publishing, movies and TV, audio-visual productions and such cultural product import operations; they are not allowed to operate state-owned museums.

10. The Ministry of Culture, The State Administration of Radio, Film and TV (SARFT), and the General Administration of Press and Publications (GAPP) must, on the basis of these Decisions, establish concrete measures that make explicit the list of investment projects that are encouraged, permissible, restricted and prohibited respectively, and guide the fast healthy development of cultural enterprises.

Each district and department must arrange, sort out and revise regulations that conflict with these Decisions. Foreign investment entering cultural industries must be carried out in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations.

Links and Sources
Source favicon15:10 To Blog,You Should be Socialized » CNBlog: Blog on Blog

前几天广岛原子弹爆炸爆炸60周年的时候,纽约时报请Joi Ito为其写一篇纪念文章。答应下来以后,他在自己的Blog上这么描述自己的写作过程

一开始的时候,我想我应该断开网络静静的思考才能写好这篇文章。结果我却发现网络是促使我获得灵感的重要来源,并且能让我迅速地得到对文章的反馈。

在传统的写作中方式中,一个人只有单独呆着,不受打扰的才能写出好文章来。那些大作家们每天把自己关上几个小时的故事早已屡见不鲜。现在呢? 闭门造车是不行了。作为Blogger,必须抱着一个开放的态度,不断的与他人交流才行。

写Blog前,你必须通过网络阅读积累素材;写的时候,你保持与你的朋友乃至读者的联系,他们随时可以给你好的意见,这个社会化的交流在你开始写作的时候就在进行了;最后当你发表了以后,通过评论,Trackback的方式,会有更多的人参与到你的写作后的过程。你可以从别人对你的评论中学习到很多东西,并且你还对写过的文章有着修改和更新的权力。这样一来,写作Blog就变得社会化起来。

在.com时代,一个人是单独的,静止的,网易那句“网聚人的力量”中的所指的人,充其量不过是一个个不那么真实的ID而已。而在"The Web"的时代,网络联系起来的是一个个真正的人。每个人既是教导者也是学习者,只有一个社会化的人,才能写好Blog。这就是Social Network真正带给我们的:人与人之间,贯穿始终的对等的交流,同时个体保持自由的思考以及态度。

Source favicon14:37 网易的在线RSS阅读器 » 未完成 - Incomplete
以前曾经有blogger提过从来访记录中发现有来自188.com的访客(我的Blog记录也有),从而推测网易可能在开发自己的在线RSS阅读器,不过今天从Donews知道李学凌做的在线RSS阅读器已经面试了,而且还取了个“狗狗”这个似乎更应该是Sohu的服务使用的名字。 简单试用了一下,基本上也可以算作是Bloglines的中文版,在版面设计与配色方面都与Bloglines颇为相似,功能也基本上是模仿Bloglines。可以直接导入opml文件,而且支持直接从Bloglines导入,对Bloglines感到不满意的RSS用户倒是可以直接转用狗狗,至少也可以保留一个所订阅的RSS的备份吧。 好像还有个Bloglines所不具备的功能是可以在Blog上直接显示狗狗中的RSS订阅人数,有点类似于Feedburner的显示订阅人数标签,不过没找到怎么用感谢李学凌的留言,标签生成器在这里。 ps. 响应一下Webleon的号召,写篇短blog:) ps2. 灵图开放了地图API,是否也会像Google Map一样带动更多的国内地图应用呢?
Source favicon14:25 Meme alert! Time Magazine and the Cultural Revolution » Danwei RSS 1.0

An open letter to Time magazine from Danwei reader Hu Yue:

Dear Time Magazine,

Symantec’s Norton Anti-Meme 2005 Software has detected the presence of the virus/meme CREALTAGOI in the article “Return of the Bourgeois Dogs” in your magazine. Please read the article again and note our virus/meme definition and removal instructions below.

----------------------------------------------------

Time Magazine: Return of the Bourgeois Dogs


Massacred in the Cultural Revolution, pet pooches reemerge to signal the triumph of capitalism

Cassius is a Miniature Schnauzer with oversized ears, who joined my household courtesy of the Naughty Pets store in Shanghai. The idea of keeping pets — naughty or otherwise — had long been taboo in the People's Republic of China. During the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution, Chairman Mao's Red Guards killed pet dogs by the tens of thousands, seeing them as symbols of the pampered bourgeoisie his Communist regime was out to eradicate. Even dogs being bred for their meat in southern China were exterminated, and gourmets dissuaded from tasting the rich flesh lest they become infected by class depravity.

But China's booming free market experiment has brought the bewhiskered icons of capitalist decadence back to the nation's cities, tails held high. Given that the requisite annual dog license in Shanghai costs $240, it's no surprise that pet ownership is largely confined to the new moneyed classes. Although Cassius still gets curious looks when she goes on her morning jaunts — one local was convinced she was a rabbit, another that she was a furry robot — Shanghai is now home to more than 100,000 licensed pooches. The Shanghai Jinli Pet Company, one of the city's oldest, offers breeds like the Welsh Corgi for $1,800 — five times the annual income of an average Chinese farmer. Although small dogs are more prevalent due to the city's cramped living quarters, a massive Saint Bernard comes to Naughty Pets for his biweekly pedicure, trailed by a maid whose primary job appears to be wiping away his slobber with a towel.

An entire industry now caters to China's pets, who, like the spoiled offspring of the country's one-child policy, lap up the attention. Animal salons shape dogs into brilliantly hued canine topiaries; orange and pink are the most popular colors, especially for poodles whose dyed coats complement their owners' wardrobes. Naturally, you can buy doghouses with certified "relaxing and comfortable fengshui." There's even a cremation service specifically for dogs, which makes sense since some Buddhists believe the animals are the reincarnation of humans who were a bit too naughty in their previous lives.

Canine coddling has gotten so out of hand that many Baobaos and Baobeis — two of the most popular dog names in Shanghai, translated as "treasure" and "baby" respectively — are carried around in little tote bags to protect their pedicured paws from sidewalk dirt. Cassius still prefers to use her own four legs, but the port-a-pup scheme does help evade a municipal decree that bans dogs from walking the streets during daylight hours. The official rationale? Modern cities shouldn't have doggie poop. Apparently, the Shanghai officials who devised the regulation haven't been to Paris.



---------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRUS DEFINITION: CREALTAGOI (AKA, “Cultural Revolution ended a long time ago, get over it.”)

This virus-meme is especially virulent and considered to be dangerous to accurate reporting.

COMMON SPECIMENS OF CREALTAGOI-GENERATED SUBHEDS:
- The Chinese drank mud during the CR, and now they're drinking Perrier.
- The Chinese rode bicycles during the CR, and now they're driving Benz's.
- The Red Guards ate human flesh during the CR, now they're eating sushi.
- Chairman Mao must be rolling in his...
-Men from South Carolina were averse to cleaning their toe cheese during the American Civil War, but now they’re waxing the insides of their ears.
- Plato was alive in the 4th Century B.C., but now he's dead.

SUSPECT PHRASES:
“long been taboo,” “triumph of capitalism,” “booming free market,” “farmer” and “now.”

REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Download a calendar from the 20th century. [If you’re not sure what the 20th century is, it is widely considered to be the one that happened before the one we’re stuck in now.]

2. Count the number of years since 1976. (Yes, 2000 counts as an actual year. Don’t get confused by all the zeroes)

3. Take a deep breath. Get over it. Let it go. See if you could perhaps try comparing 2005 to 2000. Let the Cultural Revolution be. (Unless you can actually afford the wordcount and depth to somehow get us from the CR to now in a meaningful way that neither distorts the CR nor distorts the present.) Yes, a lot has indeed happened since the Civil War, the last Ice Age and the Big Bang. It will be okay. Things do change. And they certainly didn't stop or start changing in 1976.

Sincerely Yours,
The Symantec Anti-Meme Team

Source favicon09:59 Smart New Templates » ProNet
Movable Type's often been praised for both the elegance of its user interface and the way the system's published pages look. But the current generation of default designs have gotten a little long in the tooth, and we wanted to...
Source favicon09:54 查號台小姐的笑容 » ilyagram
「各位朋友: 我這陣子在幫忙電信工會打試圖擋住私有化的最後一仗。大家或許在媒體上都看到了,工 會面臨的狀況非常困難,為了1兆資產,財團及其代理人卯足了勁要在他們創造的法律空 窗期搶關賤賣台灣最賺錢的全民資產。中華電信董事長賀陳旦甚至說:釋股完成,勞工問 題就解決了!言下之意,消滅工會就是早晚的事了!112 8月11日,釋股、轉手就可能完成。在情況如此緊急之下,工會能提出的法律救濟,不管 在台灣或美國,都極為有限。 因此,員工的動員成為最後也重要的手段。 作為支持工會反財團化訴求的台灣一般人民,我們能做什麼? 我剛剛打了104,告訴接電話的小姐:「小姐,謝謝您的服務,我是一個一般用戶,我知道 你們都很辛苦,但是即將被公司賣掉了。我覺得你們中華電信員工應該積極參與工會的罷 工行動,我們都會支持你們的!」那位小姐先是偷笑,然後有點生氣地說:「這是查號台 耶!」我說,「我知道啊,可是私有化之後查號台人員一定被精簡,你們的工作壓力又會 更大!」這次,她笑得很燦爛,說:「謝謝你喔!」她知道我在說什麼。 打完,心裡舒坦多了。 我在想,有多少人看到新聞會像我一樣有衝動想拿起電話打。就打吧! 打104、打105、打112、英語打106、國際台100、長途台108、服務電話123、行動電話業 務0800-080-090、、、任何一枝有人服務的電話都可以打。告訴他們,我們支持工會、反 對財團化! 說不定,夠多人鼓勵的話,更多會員會願意參與,說不定,我們真能保住中華電信! 趕快打吧,想到就打,有空就打、打給親朋好友請他們都打!讓我們發起暖流送給中華電 信員工! 也請盡可能轉寄給其他朋友! In Solidarity 信行 陳信行 世新大學社會發展研究所助理教授 如果你想要知道中華電信相關的爭議,請參考中華電信工會網站與 portnoy 的呼籲。苦勞網針對民營化相關問題有持續的關心報導,最新的一則文章是:民營化關鍵週 電信工會以四大方案因應。 Updated: 工會理事長張緒中的這段陳述,表達了他們獨力為台灣民眾攔阻中華電信資方的理由與行動: 「...中華電信一方面在美國釋股1000億,在台灣釋出180億,卻在報紙登全幅廣告、謊稱「全民釋股」,這是「掩耳盜鈴」的行為,....新加坡電信只要年滿21歲的公民皆能享有全民無償配股,而眼前中華電信的「全民釋股」不過是一個美麗藉口而已。他強調,眼前已是電信工會民營化前最後一擊,不過員工到最後一秒都不會放棄,8號工會也將在各大報買下全版廣告,陳述中華電信「假民營,真圖利」的事實。他並公開邀請賀陳旦與工會進行辯論。由於工會早已於去年12月通過罷工投票,8號中華電信在六福皇宮舉行釋股說明會,工會方面即將展開行動。...」 同樣苦勞網的新聞中,中華電信工會記者會上有學界的聲音: 「...政治大學教授康寶榮與中山大學財管系主任張玉山也出席今天的記者會,康榮寶說,目前台灣公司經營的特色是,一個財團根本不需要持有太多公司的股份,即可完全掌握一間公司,以目前國泰富邦持有中華電信股份的狀況看,在民營化後,掌握中華電信的經營權,可說輕而易舉,更何況在美發行的ADR,只要經過90天的閉鎖期之後,財團即可到海外去買股票,轉換為台灣的股權;而中華電信盤後拍,以折價優惠而無配套的方式,將使得承購者套利心態而殺出股票,加上市場上預期下跌的心理,讓承購的民眾根本無利可圖。康寶榮認為,此次3%盤後拍的的主要目的,還是在化解美方對立法院在釋股案上壓力的疑慮。 這讓我想到商業週刊之前的專題:新無產專政。全民資產到底是什麼意思?商業運作竟然影響到所有人民的權益?這些原本我以為可以不用理會的商業字眼,隨著自己的年紀增長,竟然有著不同的社會與文化意義。 回到查號台小姐的笑容,我們自己不也是那期待臉上能夠綻放笑容的勞動者?
Source favicon06:15 Fill in the blanks » Google Blog


Sometimes one wants to use a search engine to find a very specific piece of information rather than to learn about a topic. If search engines were truly intelligent, you could just pose a question the same way you would ask a person. An alternative is to get the search engine to 'fill in the blank.' So instead of asking [who invented the parachute?], you can enter the query [the parachute was invented by *]. (The blank, or wildcard, search is marked by * - an asterisk.)

There is so much text on the web that this method often works well, but to make it more effective, we've improved the way results are found in response to queries containing such blanks. This includes allowing softer pattern matching, if necessary, and promoting results in which the blank filler is relatively more frequent in the context of the query.

One nice thing about this approach to answering questions is that the same mechanism can be used in all languages, so the improved blank filling will work on google.com in your favorite language. It can also be used for exploratory queries rather than questions as such: try something like [Glasgow is the * capital of Europe].
Source favicon05:58 Parachute Repacks » Jeremy Zawodny's blog
Most people don't know a lot about parachutes. In fact, I'd venture a guess that most pilots don't know much about them either--unless they've tried sky diving. :-) Before work this morning, I headed up to Hayward, California to fetch my parachute. Like most glider pilots, I wear one when I fly. Mine is a red and white Mini Softie (just like the one on the right) that's rated for my weight range and doubles as a nice back...
Source favicon04:52 You cannot buy my traffic... » Jeremy Zawodny's blog
An email excahnge that I had this week with a dumb spammer (whose company name I have removed): Hi , I want to buy your traffic. Please get back to me ASAP. Best, Jeremy Linson Account Manager My response: Great! There's so much traffic in the Bay Area that I'd love to get rid of. My commute would be so much faster. Please tell me how we can get started on this. Thanks, Jeremy His response: Hi Jeremy, Well, either...
Source favicon04:44 New Template Management Screens » ProNet
Movable Type has always supported the easy publishing of as many output templates as you need, with flexible archiving styles and the ability to choose between dynamic or static publishing. But in the past, the sheer number of items listed...
Source favicon04:27 Google的IM会怎样? » WebLeOn's Blog
Google要收购Meetro,所以Google IM又被我们挂到了嘴边。那么如果Google要开发即时通讯软件,它会长成什么样子呢?



Google一向是我行我素、标新立异,在不经意间,却又常常引导着业界的潮流。当邮件服务都快被网络公司们遗忘的时候,Google推出了Gmail;大家还在网络搜索上厮杀,Google已经把先进的搜索技术带到了你的桌面。



所以要猜Google IM的样子还是有点难度,不过最近几个月Google接连收购Dodgeball和Meetro,再加上Google自家的LocalMaps,多少给了我们一些想象的空间。Google的IM很可能会包含以下这些元素:WiFi支持、Mobile Device支持、地理信息、本地信息、社会性网络。



这些还不足以构成一个清晰的轮廓,不过我想Google IM肯定会是一个完全不同于MSN Messenger、Yahoo! Messenger或者Skype那样的软件。



说Google要买Skype?我看可能不大,收购Gizmo或者JAJAH都有很好的技术,买一个VoIP何必要动辄几十亿?为了那4200万用户?这可不像Google的风格。



以上都是胡猜,切勿当真。不过真事也有一件:Orkut有了中文界面。
Source favicon00:57 Blogger的读者更加富有 » WebLeOn's Blog
comScore Networks最新作了一份关于Blog圈行为习惯的调查报告(PDF)。调查的对象是美国的Blog圈,所以可能一些具体的数字对我们来说意义不是太大,但是有一些相对的比较还是非常有意思。

- 5家最大的BSP在2005年第一季度的独立访问者都超过了500万,而4个最热门的独立Blog在此期间的独立访问人数也都超过了100万人。相对而言,国内的独立Blog还远没有美国那样可以和整个BSP抗衡的影响力。

- 政治Blog是最受欢迎的,接下来是时尚生活、科技Blog和作者为女性的Blog。国内的情况:第一是空白,第二是接近空白,所以目前看客最多的,应该还是科技类和女性Blog。以时尚生活为内容的Blog还是大有潜力可挖啊。

- 跟普通的互联网用户比较,Blog读者中有更多生活在富裕家庭,而且他们更年轻、更多的使用宽带来接入互联网。读者更年轻可能在中国不成立,不过暂时来说Blogger以及Blog读者的受教育程度应该普遍稍高一些。

- Blog读者的网络阅读量是普通互联网用户的2倍,而且他们更加喜欢通过网络购物。这点可能放到中国也合适。所以说,Blog读者是潜力巨大的消费群体,Blog作为一种营销手段是任何商家都不应该忽略的。
Source favicon00:27 头文字B:Baidu or Bubble? » 未完成 - Incomplete
无疑这两天被淹没在有关Baidu上市的消息、评论以及Blog中,IPO首日354%的涨幅无疑对大部分人都是意料之外,而这也确立了baidu在网民心目中的江湖地位,但互联网的江湖总是“城头变幻大王旗”。百度是否能够支持这样的股价是几乎所有人接下来的疑问,尤其对于那些享受着纸上富贵的Baidu员工来说,半年多以后的百度股价要比现在更让他们关心。 既然百度被看作中国的Google,不妨以Google与百度今年一季度的财务数据作个比较,先比较几个主要的指标:营运利润率、纯利率与净资产收益率。简单比较这几个重要的财务指标,就可以发现百度与Google之间的巨大差距。   营运利润率 纯利率 净资产收益率 Google 30.05% 18.56% 33.79% 百度 6.43% 5.87% 1.15% 但股市投资的并非现在而是在投资一家公司的未来,Google的股价之所以能够不断上涨,甚至一度突破300美元,也是因为业绩的不断增长与不断的创新。而百度的收入也从2000年的130万增长到1.11亿元(以下未说明的均为人民币),增长84倍,而从2003年到2004年增长率也达187%。从下表中也可以看出百度在最近的五个季度的收入、毛利润、运营利润以及净利润的变动情况。百度的收入在整个2004年基本上都能够以每个季度33%左右的增长率增长,但在2005年的一季度,由于广告行业季节性波动的影响,收入只比上个季度增长5%。而百度预计二季度能够达到53%的季度增长率。从毛利润率、运营利润率与净利润率几个指标上也可以看出,除05年一季度外,在整个04年均维持增长,而05年一季度与04年一季度同比也有改善。百度更预测二季度的净利润达到1210万元,较一季度增长384%,营运利润的增长率也达到344%(至于百度如何在收入仅增长53%的情况下实现净利384%的增长,除了由于人力成本相对比较固定外,其余的原因需要详细的财务资料方可解释)。   2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 总收入 1715万 2283万 3049万 4044万 4263万 毛利润 1140万 1592万 2229万 2832万 3006万 运营利润 94万 152万 254万 600万 274万 净利润 104万 166万 294万 637万 250万 但即使是百度这样强劲的增长是否能够支持目前高涨的股价呢?以现金流折现法计算百度的潜在价值显然只能是投资教科书上的做法,对于我并不可行,不妨以最简单的市盈率指标来看。目前Google的市盈率大约为84,Yahoo的市盈率为32,而百度按照昨天的收市价格(115.5美元)及04年的摊薄后每股收益(0.052美元)计算得市盈率为2221,不但远高于Google与Yahoo,也远远高于同属中国概念股的网易(35)和盛大(32)。如果要维持100美元以上的股价,且百度的市盈率下降到至少Google这样的相对理性的水平,那么百度在05年的每股收益需要达到1.25美元,是04年每股收益的24倍。 根据百度预测的二季度净利润150万美元(季度增长384%),第三与第四季度再按照高于去年平均季度净利润增长率(约85%)的150%的增长速度计算,全年的每股收益也只达到0.50美元,与1.25美元的标准相去甚远,而随着收入基数的放大,要做到三、四季度净利润分别增长1.5倍相信已是很不容易,更不要说要增长至每股1.25美元,而且随着Google在中国的布局以及Yahoo、MSN提高对中国市场的投入,甚至是新浪iAsk的出现,国内搜索引擎市场的竞争会更加激烈,百度的市场份额可能被削弱。假设百度能够实现05年0.50美元的每股收益,则按照80的市盈率,合理的股价应为40美元左右。 另一方面,百度的股价还存在另外三大隐患:创新、收入来源与版权诉讼。Google之所以能够维持比Yahoo及其他网络股更高的市盈率,除了收益的不断增长外,不断的创新也让Google一直是互联网业界的焦点,成功的IR使投资者对其充满着更大的信心。而百度的创新能力更可能会受到投资者的质疑,对维持高股价也存在着不利的影响。百度高达94%的收入来自竞价排名,而且这一比例还在不断攀升(04年全年为91%)。而早年的主要收入来源——为门户网站提供外包服务已经日益萎缩,且在招股书中表示会在不久的将来取消这项服务,另一个收入来源企业搜索软件服务则增长速度较慢,不足以承担百度增长的重任,收入过度依赖影响用户体验(我就只在万不得已的情况才使用baidu的搜索)的竞价排名也是百度业绩的一个重要潜在风险。当然,但百度在今年某个时间推出中国的Google Adsense——百度主题推广的时候,也会是对股价的一个大利好,只是这项业务是否能够支持百度的高增长,还需要时间的证明。 在我写这篇blog的时候,百度的股价在100美元之上徘徊,股市是非理性的,但股市又总是向理性回归着的。财富可以让很多人一时忘记财富背后的罪恶,但曾经的历史也是无法抹杀的事实。百度上市的疯狂对baidu本身或许并非好事,但对整个的中国互联网行业也许是个利好,会让更多的资金开始回归到中国的网络行业中来。仅仅百度恐怕还不能称得上是泡沫,但我们还是应当在一觉醒来之后回归理性。 ps.文中所有百度的财务数据引自百度的招股文件。

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