keso的互联网的小本生意,针贬当下互联网时弊,弄得不少人颇为不快,说其“笔下虽有千言,胸中实无一策”。但我以为其实为难得好文章。但说得还不够,还不够,大大不够。
互联网2.0是趋势,不是咒语
从互联网诞生的第一天起,它就不是“只读”的,从来不是。但是96K、或者144K网速实在会消磨人“写”的热情,就连“读”有时候都不是那么有乐趣的一件事情。网络的普及和网速的提升,让分享变得简单而有乐趣,让台下有了百倍的观众为你喝彩。互联网2.0不是突变,是潜移默化的趋势。分享互联网(Shared Internet)是趋势,每个人的互联网(Personalized Internet)是趋势,软件即服务(SaaS,Software as a Service)是趋势。
但,它绝不是咒语。
我们不能高呼着互联网2.0的口号,疯狂的聚集在一起,把所有的东西都贴上2.0的标签,就期望神迹会出现,风投会显灵,护送你飞去西方极乐世界风光上位。我们不能不惜一切代价烧钱、烧房、烧车,祈求用户数和访问量飘摇上升,幻想着最终每个用户化蝶为元宝满天飞舞。互联网2.0不是咒语,芝麻不会开门。最终一定要有一个清醒的人来回答一个问题:“谁来买单?”
风投在买彩票,创业在做特征
彩票是一个概率游戏,而风投多善于此道。精于彩票者,多会根据一些模式(pattern)来购买,比如统计数据显示的某些“成功”彩票号码的特征,而不需要论证过的理由(reasoning)。风投的逻辑很简单,赌博从来都是统计游戏,在有上市这样大赔率机制的彩票游戏中,买十个特征彩票,有一支买中了,就稳赚不赔。
为了那1家上市公司,于是风投选了10家公司;为了那10家公司,100家创业公司在做特征;最终1家成功上市,风投赚了,99家赔了。
创业公司想方设法让自己具备所有“特征”(比如alexa排名)。风投被迷惑了,砸钱更谨慎;创业公司发现了,包装更完美;风投更加迷惑;就这样道高一尺、魔高一丈,生生不息。
巨大的诱惑在前面,极少有人站出来问:“谁来买单?”
让互联网2.0变为商业2.0,而不是泡沫2.0
keso说,“做小本生意”。我以为关键字不在“小本”上,而是在“生意”上。每个生意人都必须回答一个基本问题:“谁来买单”。对这个问题没有一个好的答案的,只能说“我希望”或者“我相信”。而希望和相信不是战略。
那些一直在思考“谁来买单”而不是“谁来买我”的公司,最终存活下来。而那些没有上市,又没有找到“谁来买单”答案的公司,最终化为一个个晶莹的泡沫,破灭了。
互联网2.0最终是商业2.0,还是泡沫2.0,今天我们还不知道。但我知道,如果所有公司都想“获投、上市”,都想“谁来买我”,泡沫就离我们不远了,而2.0会和当年的.com一样,一夜之间变为一个极为讽刺的名词。
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Betsynote: Not to be outdone, Beau realized his officemate Ajay would be having a birthday...but here's how Ajay tells it....
I’m Ajay, a graduate student from the Masters of Information Systems Management program at Carnegie Mellon; I’m a program manager intern working on Core search feature development.
Apart from getting hands on with real product feature projects, playing with some fantastic technology, and rubbing shoulders with some really smart people, interns at Microsoft also learn to have fun at work. It’s something I totally love about Microsoft compared to other big companies; everyone knows how to let their hair down once in a while.
Some of you may have seen what Beau’s friends and his friends and I did to his office, so today was my turn. As my birthday “gift” they gave me my very own window office… built entirely of juice cans and cardboard boxes.
The cans were contributed by several interns (yes, we get free juice and soda, and we chug at least 4 a day). They made sure I had a comfortable place to sit, with a nice can hallway for those oh so important “hallway conversations.” I actually liked it so much I’m going to keep it for a while!
Thanks a ton to Beau, Michael, Franz, Maggie, Jaidev, Dena, Mario, Josh and Yan. This rocks!!
Who says Microsoft is all work and no play? :)
-- Ajay Nair, Program Manager Intern, Web Search